How Wording Is Compared
What Gulf officials wrote, not a judgment of intent. Every rule below applies to all six states.
Sources
6 state news agencies (Saudi Press Agency (SPA), Qatar News Agency (QNA), Emirates News Agency (WAM), Oman News Agency (ONA), Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) and Bahrain News Agency (BNA)) and 5 foreign ministries (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Oman Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kuwait Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Bahrain Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Each collected source is fetched at the publisher's own site with a user agent that names the Middle East Forum and a contact address, at most one request per second, after reading robots.txt. Sources without a collector get one probe request, and where a site blocks or times out the state is listed as unreachable and no row is created. No Saudi foreign ministry feed was probed; SPA carries the ministry's statements under the byline وزارة الخارجية. WAM article pages answer with a firewall page, so WAM is collected from its Google News sitemap headlines only and marked “agency headline”.
What Each Source Contributes
Oman ministry: every item in its Arabic and English RSS feeds back to the baseline start. Qatar ministry: every English statement page whose address names a tracked topic. UAE ministry: the first page of English news. QNA: every sitemap item whose address names a tracked topic and a Qatari official, so items with other wording in the address are not on file. WAM: sitemap headlines naming a tracked topic and an Emirati official. SPA: article numbers walked back from the newest. Actual dates on file per series:
| Source | Language | Statements | In baseline | Baseline dates on file | In current window | Current dates on file |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Press Agency (SPA) | Arabic | 14 | 0 | none | 14 | October 14, 2026 to October 16, 2026 |
| Saudi Press Agency (SPA) | English | 8 | 0 | none | 8 | October 14, 2026 to October 16, 2026 |
| Qatar News Agency (QNA) | Arabic | 247 | 163 | July 1, 2025 to December 29, 2025 | 84 | July 20, 2026 to October 17, 2026 |
| Qatar News Agency (QNA) | English | 203 | 132 | July 1, 2025 to December 29, 2025 | 71 | July 20, 2026 to October 13, 2026 |
| Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar | English | 156 | 40 | July 2, 2025 to December 27, 2025 | 46 | July 20, 2026 to October 10, 2026 |
| Emirates News Agency (WAM) | Arabic | 100 | 42 | July 4, 2025 to December 31, 2025 | 40 | July 20, 2026 to October 12, 2026 |
| Emirates News Agency (WAM) | English | 76 | 25 | July 4, 2025 to December 29, 2025 | 35 | July 20, 2026 to October 12, 2026 |
| UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs | English | 4 | 0 | none | 4 | October 9, 2026 to October 17, 2026 |
| Oman Ministry of Foreign Affairs | Arabic | 475 | 183 | July 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025 | 70 | July 26, 2026 to October 17, 2026 |
| Oman Ministry of Foreign Affairs | English | 370 | 143 | July 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025 | 57 | July 26, 2026 to October 17, 2026 |
Windows
Baseline July 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025. Current window: the 90 days to the newest statement on file, now July 20, 2026 to October 17, 2026.
Rule
For each agency, language and topic, MEF takes the statements that name the topic in each window, and only policy statements by the state's own officials; protocol cables (congratulations, condolences, credentials), agency items about other governments and agency press reviews are kept apart. A comparison runs only when both windows hold at least 5 such statements. A phrase is flagged when it appeared in at least 25% of baseline statements and in none of the current ones, or in none of the baseline statements and at least 25% (and 2) of current ones. A topic absent from a window is “not mentioned” and never produces a flag. A phrase that rises or falls but is present in both windows is not flagged; the home page shows the largest such rise, labelled as a rise. Arabic is compared only with Arabic and English only with English. Arabic and English versions of one agency item are compared only where the agency itself links them (SPA).
Each flag is worded “Wording differs from the [date] text”. It describes the documents and makes no claim about policy or motive. Quotes are excerpts of at most 30 words; the full text stays with the agency, linked beside a Wayback Machine lookup, the capture date and a sha256 of the agency page: the article page as fetched for QNA, SPA and the Qatar and UAE ministries, and the feed or sitemap item for the Oman ministry and WAM.
Normalization
c22-norm-1 (alef/hamza/maqsura/teh-marbuta folding, tatweel + harakat removed; no clitic stripping). Patterns and texts pass through the same normalizer. Method version c22-method-1 (2026-10-17).
Review
A flag reaches the public page only after a named Arabic-qualified reviewer confirms it; the reviewer's name stays with MEF. Flags not yet reviewed carry a label. Every change to a flag appears, dated, on the corrections page.
Formula List
| Topic | Language | Formula | Pattern (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | Arabic | Israeli/Zionist enemy | العدو (?:الاسرايي?لي|الصهيوني) |
| Israel | Arabic | Zionist entity | الكيان (?:الصهيوني|الاسرايي?لي) |
| Israel | Arabic | occupation (authorities, forces, state, government) | (?:سلطات|قوات|دوله|حكومه|جيش|سلطه|القوه القايمه بال)?\s?الاحتلال(?: الاسرايي?لي)? |
| Israel | Arabic | Israel (by name) | اسرايي?ل(?!ي) |
| Israel | English | Israeli/Zionist enemy | (?:israeli|zionist) enemy |
| Israel | English | Zionist entity | zionist entity |
| Israel | English | occupation (authorities, forces, state, government) | (?:israeli )?occupation(?: authorities| forces| government| state| army)?|occupying (?:power|forces) |
| Israel | English | Israel (by name) | \bisrael\b |
| Iran | Arabic | Iranian interference | التدخلات? الايرانيه? |
| Iran | Arabic | Iranian attacks (or aggression) | (?:الاعتداءات|الهجمات|الاعتداء|العدوان|الهجوم) الايرانيه? |
| Iran | Arabic | the Iranian regime | النظام الايراني |
| Iran | Arabic | Islamic Republic of Iran | الجمهوريه الاسلاميه الايرانيه |
| Iran | Arabic | Iran (by name) | ايران |
| Iran | English | Iranian interference | iranian interference |
| Iran | English | Iranian attacks (or aggression) | iranian (?:attacks?|aggression) |
| Iran | English | the Iranian regime | iranian regime |
| Iran | English | Islamic Republic of Iran | islamic republic of iran |
| Iran | English | Iran (by name) | \biran\b |
| Hamas and Palestinian factions | Arabic | the (Palestinian) resistance | المقاومه(?: الفلسطينيه| الاسلاميه)? |
| Hamas and Palestinian factions | Arabic | Palestinian factions | الفصايل الفلسطينيه |
| Hamas and Palestinian factions | Arabic | Hamas (by name) | حماس |
| Hamas and Palestinian factions | English | the (Palestinian) resistance | (?:palestinian |islamic )?resistance movement|palestinian resistance |
| Hamas and Palestinian factions | English | Palestinian factions | palestinian factions |
| Hamas and Palestinian factions | English | Hamas (by name) | \bhamas\b |
| Hezbollah | Arabic | terrorist Hezbollah | حزب الله الارهابي |
| Hezbollah | Arabic | Hezbollah militia | ميليشي(?:ا|ات) حزب الله |
| Hezbollah | Arabic | Hezbollah (by name) | حزب الله |
| Hezbollah | English | terrorist Hezbollah | terrorist hezbollah|hezbollah terrorist |
| Hezbollah | English | Hezbollah militia | hezbollah militias? |
| Hezbollah | English | Hezbollah (by name) | \bhezbollah\b|\bhizbullah\b|\bhizballah\b |
| Political Islam (designated groups) | Arabic | Brotherhood named as terrorist | الاخوان(?: المسلمين| المسلمون)? الارهابيه |
| Political Islam (designated groups) | Arabic | the Brotherhood group | جماعه الاخوان |
| Political Islam (designated groups) | Arabic | Muslim Brotherhood (by name) | الاخوان المسلم(?:ين|ون) |
| Political Islam (designated groups) | English | Brotherhood named as terrorist | terrorist (?:muslim )?brotherhood|brotherhood terrorist |
| Political Islam (designated groups) | English | the Brotherhood group | brotherhood (?:group|organi[sz]ation) |
| Political Islam (designated groups) | English | Muslim Brotherhood (by name) | muslim brotherhood |
| United States | Arabic | the US administration | الاداره الامريكيه|الاداره الاميركيه |
| United States | Arabic | America (informal) | (?<![\w])(?:امريكا|اميركا)(?! اللاتينيه| الشماليه| الجنوبيه| الوسطى) |
| United States | Arabic | United States (by name) | الولايات المتحده |
| United States | English | the US administration | (?:u\.s\.|us|american) administration |
| United States | English | America (informal) | (?<!latin )(?<!north )(?<!south )(?<!central )\bamerica\b |
| United States | English | United States (by name) | united states|\bu\.s\.(?! administration) |
| Houthis | Arabic | Houthi militia | ميليشي(?:ا|ات) الحوثي |
| Houthis | Arabic | terrorist Houthi | الحوثي(?:ه|ين)? الارهابي |
| Houthis | Arabic | Ansar Allah | انصار الله |
| Houthis | Arabic | the Houthi group | جماعه الحوثي |
| Houthis | Arabic | Houthis (by name) | الحوثي |
| Houthis | English | Houthi militia | houthi militias? |
| Houthis | English | terrorist Houthi | terrorist houthi|houthi terrorist |
| Houthis | English | Ansar Allah | ansar allah|ansarallah |
| Houthis | English | the Houthi group | houthi group|houthi movement |
| Houthis | English | Houthis (by name) | \bhouthis?\b |
| Name of the Gulf | Arabic | Arabian Gulf | الخليج العربي |
| Name of the Gulf | Arabic | Persian Gulf | الخليج الفارسي |
| Name of the Gulf | English | Arabian Gulf | arabian gulf |
| Name of the Gulf | English | Persian Gulf | persian gulf |
| Palestine (statehood terms) | Arabic | 1967 lines | حدود (?:عام )?(?:1967|١٩٦٧)|حدود الرابع من (?:يونيو|حزيران) |
| Palestine (statehood terms) | Arabic | East Jerusalem as capital | القدس الشرقيه |
| Palestine (statehood terms) | Arabic | two-state solution | حل الدولتين |
| Palestine (statehood terms) | Arabic | occupied Palestinian territories | الاراضي الفلسطينيه المحتله |
| Palestine (statehood terms) | English | 1967 lines | 1967 (?:lines|borders)|borders of (?:june )?(?:4,? )?1967|pre-1967 |
| Palestine (statehood terms) | English | East Jerusalem as capital | east jerusalem |
| Palestine (statehood terms) | English | two-state solution | two-state solution |
| Palestine (statehood terms) | English | occupied Palestinian territories | occupied palestinian territor(?:y|ies) |
Limits
Kuwait and Bahrain had no reachable official feed in this build. QNA is screened by the words in each article address, so its figures describe the QNA items whose address names a tracked topic and a Qatari official, not every QNA item. SPA is collected by walking article numbers back from the newest, so its archive here covers recent weeks only and has no 2025 baseline yet. These figures measure what was written, not what was said in calls or closed meetings, and an omission in a short window can reflect the news cycle.